Features to Enhance Land-Change Models
- Proceedings of the Workshop on Alternative Futures: Accounting for Growth in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed —OF 2012-1216
- The USGS is improving a land-use change model to predict the impacts of population growth throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Read more ...
USGS Works to Enhance Land-Change Models
Human activities and their associated impact on the landscape have significantly affected the condition of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. The Chesapeake Bay watershed is one of the most populous coastal areas, having grown from 8.1 million in 1950 to almost 17 million in 2010. To help address the impacts of population growth, the Chesapeake Bay Program is working with partners to reduce the effects of the increased stress on water quality, habitats, and critical lands.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) activities to address these management needs include:
- Enhance the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM) to better predict changes to the bay’s watershed.
- Simulate future alternative development scenarios for the watershed and use the results to
- support development of information about the vulnerability of conserved lands,
- help assess the combined impacts of land and climate change in the watershed, and
- forecast potential changes in streamflow and water quality.
- Conduct workshops on potential alternative futures for the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed based on different land uses, which will help to develop CBLCM model enhancements and new scenarios.
The USGS will continue to enhance the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model to simulate alternative future land-development scenarios and potential infill and redevelopment. Results from this model are being incorporated into the Chesapeake Bay watershed model to support the total maximum daily load (TMDL). The model is also a key tool to assess the combined impacts of climate and land change on habitats and critical lands in the watershed.